Does your consumer startup pass the alpha test?

A perspective on alpha from Ryan Hoover, as shared by Jason Yeh:

I once heard Ryan Hoover, the founder of ProductHunt and General Partner at the Weekend Fund, describe his outlook on founder pitches. He said for a company he’d consider investing in, he doesn’t think he should ever fully understand the business on his own. He essentially said the core essence of a company or the unique insights they possess should be something the founder needs to teach him.

In so many words, this difference between what the efficient market (Ryan) knows and what a backable founder possesses is what produces alpha in startups. Everything Ryan easily understands, even as a hyper-intelligent operator / investor, is already baked into the current market and doesn’t represent a true opportunity for venture returns.

The consumer space, he argued, was so hard to win in because the bar for understanding any problem is so low that almost anyone can work on them. Because of this, tons of smart people have been iterating, testing, failing, and competing in almost any consumer opportunity you can think of. He was essentially describing the dynamics of an especially efficient startup market.

https://www.adamantventures.com/blog-post/seeking-alpha-in-startups-what-is-your-unique-insight

 

Platform aggregators and monopoly power, oh my

What’s your take on online platforms like Amazon marketplace, AirBnB, Uber, Orbitz, and countless others?

Wired has an article about Spotify suing Apple for abusing its platform power (specifically, crippling their ability to interact with their own customers if Spotify declines to use Apple’s in-app purchase system.

The Swedish audio-streaming giant lodged a complaint against Apple with the European Commission on Wednesday, accusing the company of abusing its position as owner of the App Store to stifle competition. Specifically, Spotify says that by charging a 30 percent tax on in-app purchases, Apple forces app developers to make an impossible choice: Either pass those costs on to consumers, or refuse to pay the commission and face a litany of technical hurdles imposed by Apple. Spotify, which competes directly with Apple Music, argues that this constitutes an unfair advantage for Apple.

Read up on it here: https://www.wired.com/story/spotify-apple-complaint-warren-antitrust-issue/

A key quote from Spotify’s concern:

Ek also points out specific ways that Apple’s behavior could result in increased prices for consumers. If Spotify were to pay Apple’s commission, he says, it “would force us to artificially inflate the price of our Premium membership well above the price of Apple Music.” That’s important because antitrust law in the United States places a major emphasis on how competition affects consumer pricing.

Apple has already been fined for using it monopoly power to affect pricing:

Apple has faced antitrust enforcement action in the past over its impact on market costs. In 2012, the Department of Justice accused Apple of conspiring with publishers to raise the prices on their ebooks and withhold books from Amazon’s Kindle platform, which had imposed a $9.99 flat rate on ebooks. Apple fought the charges, but ended up paying $450 million in fines after losing in the Supreme Court.

Some criticism has been lodged against some politician’s policy proposals to divorce platform creators from selling on their own platforms (e.g. Apple Music competing on its own App Store with Spotify).

That suggestion elicited swift criticism, including from Stratechery’s Ben Thompson. “Is Senator Warren seriously proposing that smartphone be sold with no apps at all? Was Apple breaking the law when they shipped the first iPhone with only first-party apps?” Thompson wrote. “At what point did delivering an acceptable consumer experience out-of-the-box cross the line into abusing a dominant position? This argument may make sense in theory but it makes zero sense in reality.”

Reading Stratechery’s aggregator theory work is fascinating, and while I disagree with his criticism above —the market-creating behavior of Apple years ago on its then-nascent platform is to be judged differently than it’s competition-stifling behavior now on its fully mature platform—Ben is otherwise  astute in his analysis of intermediaries and risks of aggregation.

Read more about the collateral damage in these “platform wars” in this blog post over at Make/Grow Local’s  blog, here:

https://www.makegrowlocal.org/the-new-economics-of-multisided-platforms/

and

https://www.makegrowlocal.org/the-local-movement-needs-to-avoid-a-platform-monopsony/

New Router Malware might be affecting your home/office router

From Talos:

https://blog.talosintelligence.com/2018/05/VPNFilter.html

Given our observations with this threat, we assess with high confidence that this list is incomplete and other devices could be affected.

LINKSYS DEVICES:

E1200
E2500
WRVS4400N

MIKROTIK ROUTEROS VERSIONS FOR CLOUD CORE ROUTERS:

1016
1036
1072

NETGEAR DEVICES:

DGN2200
R6400
R7000
R8000
WNR1000
WNR2000

QNAP DEVICES:

TS251
TS439 Pro

Other QNAP NAS devices running QTS software

TP-LINK DEVICES:

R600VPN

WIRED has an article about this cybersecurity hazard here: https://www.wired.com/story/vpnfilter-router-malware-outbreak/

WIRED has reached out to Netgear, TP-Link, Linksys, MicroTik, and QNAP for comment on the VPNFilter malware. Netgear responded in a statement that users should update their routers’ firmware, change any passwords they’ve left as the default, and disable a “remote management” setting that hackers are known to abuse, steps it outlines in a security advisory about the VPNFilter malware. The other companies have yet to respond to WIRED’s request.

Solve when MacOS X 10.11 loses the ability to set a default browser

If your MacOS X 10.11 (El Capitan) loses the ability to set a default browser, you can clear up the bug by rebuilding the Apple Launch Services.

Symptoms:

1. You use two browsers (Firefox and Chrome)… the wrong browser starts launching as the (unintended) default after you opened it once for some task — despite the intended default browser launching fine up to that point, the unwanted browser takes over as a URL handler in other programs.

2. When you try to reset the default browser in System Preferences > General, there are no browsers showing in the picker!

Solution:

Run this terminal command:

/System/Library/Frameworks/CoreServices.framework/Frameworks/LaunchServices.framework/Support/lsregister -kill -r -domain local -domain system -domain user ; killall Dock

Immediately restart!

Then you’ll see your choices again:


Inspired by this specific answer on StackExchange Mac OS X 10.11 browser default.

Phishing Attacks with Unicode Domains

One more attack vector to be thinking about!

From a security perspective, Unicode domains can be problematic because many Unicode characters are difficult to distinguish from common ASCII characters. It is possible to register domains such as “xn--pple-43d.com”, which is equivalent to “аpple.com”. It may not be obvious at first glance, but “аpple.com” uses the Cyrillic “а” (U+0430) rather than the ASCII “a” (U+0041). This is known as a homograph attack.

Chrome 59 will protect you from these phishing attempts by converting the maliciously-similar name to the Punycode version, thus making you aware of something amiss.

Firefox users can limit their exposure by going to about:config and settingnetwork.IDN_show_punycode to true. This will force Firefox to always display IDN domains in its Punycode form, making it possible to identify malicious domains. Thanks to /u/MARKZILLA on reddit for this solution.

Thus, the attack form of apple.com will show as https://www.xn--80ak6aa92e.com

On Twitter @Xudong_Zheng  says a simple way to limit the risk from bugs such as this is to always use a password manager, which can identify that the similar letters are not the same.

 

In the slow lane: the state of Fiber Broadband in Maine

Maine has a three-part internet access problem that is affecting our collective economic prospects. Scarce rural access, slow internet speeds and expensive  data plans are causing us Mainers (and our companies) to not gain the full benefits of modern cloud-computing services and infrastructure—and we are actually overpaying for connectivity, relative to other cities in the USA and even across the world. (Sources.)

However, Maine is also one of the rare states with an advanced fiber-optic network, called the Three-Ring Binder, strung throughout its territory, connecting (some) rural areas to (some) population centers.

Learn more about its genesis (from both private and federal investment dollars) at Maine Fiber Company:

Maine Fiber Company owns and operates an extensive high-capacity dark fiber network in the northeastern US. The network is largely an open-access middle-mile infrastructure and is available to all carriers and service providers on a non-discriminatory basis.

So that’s the good news; we have a solid foundation. But there are many barriers to broadband expansion and competition in Maine, including geographical barriers (rural sparsely-populated areas) that discourage commercial profit-driven development, and also opposition from  incumbent telecom companies who strive to make pole attachment difficult and lobby (and litigate) against community-owned networks.

Where market forces have failed to provide choice, quality of service, and modern speeds, a feasible solution is for communities to build their own networks, as Rockport did (see news story). Maine, with its Three-Ring Binder network, has the necessary “dark fiber” to allow communities and local service providers to connect and offer very fast speeds at lower prices than the incumbents.

Check these informative resources to learn more about the national movement for community-owned broadband.

A VISION FOR MAINE

As a software company owner and resident, my vision for Maine in the 21st century is for us to become a State with the highest percentage of its population connected via Gigabit Fiber networks —to each other, and to the world.

Why “Gigabit”? It’s all about the speed of getting things done.

Many professional services will benefit from faster downloads and uploads, including:

  • remote medical imaging/diagnostics (aka telehealth)
  • video production
  • consumer cloud services like offsite hard-drive backups
  • sharing big data with AI computing engines for business analysis
  • streaming virtual reality data for field-augmented holographic vision
  • video conferencing
  • smart building controls

We especially need improvements to our upload speeds, where the lopsided difference is indefensible by existing providers (it’s about economics, not physics).

Quick quiz: do you know why your office downloads are (somewhat) fast, but upload speeds are slow, at around 5Mb or 10Mb? Short answer: internet providers built out their networks as if the internet was passive TV; we can consume data but we can’t easily “broadcast” or publish anything ourselves.

UNDERSTANDING SPEED

21st Century states need Gigabit speed, which is 1,000 Mbps. To compare: currently most of us with Cable internet access in Maine have a top speed of 50Mb for downloads / 5Mb for uploads. (Note again the huge disparity between upload and download speed.)

To understand how measurements are made, learn this simple rule:  Bytes are for storage, bits are for data”  and the ratio of:  1 Byte = 8 bits.

So this means you could describe speeds or file sizes interchangeably, by converting “bits-to-bytes” but it’s best to stick with the B (storage)or b (data) as appropriate.

e.g.  8Gb (speed) = 1GB (file size), and 1Gb (speed) = 125MB (file size).
You’ll note that 125 x 8 = 1,000

Here’s a chart with common examples of file sizes versus the data transfer speeds it would take to download:

Chart courtesy of FastMetrics.

PRACTICAL BENEFITS

Let’s study a particular use case: online (cloud) backups, for personal or corporate archiving. Let’s say you have a small 500gb hard drive that needs continuous, offsite backups… here’s how long it would take to do the initial upload to a cloud backup service over 3 different upload speeds.

Typical: 5 Mbps Upload speed

That’s over 9 days to do a first-time sync. Ever completing that transfer is highly unrealistic, especially if its with a laptop that you need to take from office to home and back, interrupting the progress.

Better speed: 200 Mbps upload rate:

A 5 hour transfer time is much more reasonable; set it in motion before bed and by the morning it will be complete.

Dream speed: with a 1 Gbps upload rate:

1gb transfer speed

Just think of how productive we could be with video uploading and sharing projects (like uploading your marketing videos to Youtube); with transferring gigabyte datasets across corporate locations; streaming Virtual Reality data in real-time; and many more business activities—and I am purposefully not mentioning the benefits to all the myriad entertainment services available, since such “non-critical” uses (download 40 music files per hour! watch 5 different movies at home!) can be used to detract from the urgent necessity of better speeds for actual business or professional applications.

WE CAN DO BETTER

From the linked Akamai report, and according to PCMag:

…better government planning in South Korea has improved internet connection speeds across the country dramatically. Additionally, a competitive Korean ISP market has led to exceptional service levels for end users. In the city of Cheongju, average internet speeds to citizens of 124.5Mbps are standard. Further, 1Gbps internet plans are available in South Korea for just $20 USD.

Maine’s ConnectME defines broadband as:

The ConnectME Authority Board currently defines effective broadband as 10 Mbps/10 Mbps – 10 megabits down and 10 megabits up. Areas that have maximum available broadband speeds of at least 10 Mbps/10 Mbps are considered served. Areas with available broadband speeds that are lower than 1.5 Mbps download are considered unserved. Areas where the maximum available service is between 1.5Mbps download and 10Mbps/10Mbps are considered underserved.


My office currently pays $75/mo for a 30Mb/5Mb plan. Here’s what a widely-used speed test shows I am getting at this moment:
This is a shared cable network, so when other users nearby are using the internet, speeds will slow. But 6Mb upload is not acceptable in today’s world, and according to Maine’s standards. What can be done?

A CALL TO ACTION

So let’s join together to create better connectivity options in our state! Here’s how, specifically:
  1. Ask your ISP for faster upload speeds. When they tell you it’s impossible or will cost $500–$1,000 per month for a “business plan”, go to steps 2–7.
  2. Join the Maine Broadband Coalition (visit their website) and track the latest issues concerning our state.
  3. Ask your State Rep or Senator (find them here) for help in encouraging any state-level initiatives to help Maine advance the cause of 21st century connectivity.
  4. Ask your town to join Next Century Cities; we have 6 in Maine so far!
  5. Follow Maine’s ConnectME agency (charged with community broadband development) and speak out;
  6. Buy your service from an ISP (internet service provider) who offers better packages than the bigger brand names.
  7. Ask your town if they have plans to create a municipally-owned or managed “internet utility” to fill voids left by the private sector.

Consumers Prefer Text Conversations with Support Reps

Question for you: do you favor a less personal connection with the support reps you need to interact with in our modern life, or a more personal, face-to-face experience?

A 2014 study showed consumers favor the less personal, compressed experience of Texting/messaging versus voice or video support. Source.

Spending Too Long On Hold – Spending time on hold is a major source of frustration for consumers. 38 percent of respondents have spent 10-30 minutes on the phone with a customer support representative, while over half (56 percent) actually said that they’ve waited an hour or more to have their problem solved.

The company that commissioned the study makes SMS messaging platforms. It was acquired by Salesforce in Sept. 2016

http://www.heywire.com/

Sometimes you might be in the mood to chat with a live person, with all the empathetic channels of voice in force, and other times you may prefer the single-channel avenue of ascii text. Let the customer decide which channel they prefer!

Space colonization as Backup Plan B or to protect Earth – Yes!

Ars Technica had an article about Jeff Bezos’ motivations for space rocketry and travel:

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/10/jeff-bezos-dismisses-idea-of-a-backup-plan-says-we-must-protect-earth/

Bezos dismissed this approach on Oct. 22, during the Pathfinder Awards at the Seattle Museum of Flight. In remarks first shared by GeekWire, Bezos said Earth should be zoned as a residential area. “I don’t like the Plan B idea that we want to go into space so we have a backup planet,” he said, noting NASA’s efforts to send probes throughout the solar system. “Believe me, this is the best planet. There is no doubt this is the one you want to protect. This is the jewel. We evolved here, we’re kind of made for this planet. It’s gorgeous, and we can use space to protect it.”

Humanity has two futures, Bezos said. It can continue to grow, or it can settle into some kind of population equilibrium. As an example of the planet’s limitations he offered energy as an example. Taking the baseline energy use on Earth, and compounding it at 3 percent for 500 years, would require covering the entire surface of the Earth in solar cells to meet the demand by the year 2500.

“We need to go into space if we want grow as a species,” he said. “Another route would be just to face stasis, but I don’t think that’s as interesting. I don’t think we want to just survive on this planet, I think we want to thrive and do amazing things.”